Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, live pigs, and peanuts 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - Palm Oil: Macro sentiment drives up prices, but limited upside from fundamentals [2] - Soybean Oil: Insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans, lacking upward drivers [2][5] - Soybean Meal: Concerns over trade and falling US soybean prices may lead to weak and volatile prices of Dalian soybean meal futures [2][12] - Soybean: Stable spot prices, volatile futures prices [2][12] - Corn: Undergoing shock adjustment [2][16] - Sugar: In a consolidation phase [2][23] - Cotton: Tight inventory expectations for old crops continue to support futures prices [2][27] - Eggs: Attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices during the peak season [2][34] - Live Pigs: Spot market sentiment is weakening [2][36] - Peanuts: Prices have support at the bottom [2][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis are provided. For example, the closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,678 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [5] - Macro and Industry News: Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil production to recover in the 2025/26 season, with a 0.5% year - on - year increase to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption is expected to decline by 2% to 38 million tons [6][7] - Trend Intensity: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of DCE soybean, DCE soybean meal, CBOT soybean, and CBOT soybean meal, as well as spot prices and basis in different regions are presented. For instance, the closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 (day session) was 2,947 yuan/ton, up 0.31% [12] - Macro and Industry News: On July 9, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day due to concerns over US trade policies and good weather conditions in the Midwest [12][15] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of -1, while soybean has a trend intensity of 0 (only for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuation on the reporting day) [13] 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Data: Spot prices in different regions such as Northeast, Jinzhou, North China, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of C2509 (day session) was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [17] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port prices remained stable, while prices in Northeast and North China mostly declined. Imported sorghum and barley prices were also reported [18] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21] 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Data: Prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures, as well as price spreads and basis are provided. For example, the raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.43% [23] - Macro and Industry News: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon rainfall was higher than the long - period average; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase [23] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [25] 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of CF2509, CY2509, and ICE cotton, as well as spot prices in different regions, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads are presented. For example, the closing price of CF2509 (day session) was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [28] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was mostly quiet, and the overall basis remained stable. Cotton textile enterprises' market changed little, with weak orders and large losses for spinning enterprises [29] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [32] 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts, as well as spot prices in different regions, are provided. For example, the closing price of egg 2508 was 3,484 yuan/500 kg, up 1.07% [34] - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [34] 3.7 Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of live pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [38] - Market Logic: The current market is in the expectation trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has formed a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - term sentiment. However, the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to the spot market performance in the future [40] - Trend Intensity: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [39] 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Data: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning, Henan, and Xingcheng, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are presented. For example, the closing price of PK510 was 8,176 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [42] - Spot Market Focus: In the spot market, the remaining inventory in production areas is almost exhausted, and the raw material acquisition is nearing the end. The prices of good - quality peanuts are firm, while the prices in most regions are stable or slightly weak [43] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [46]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250710
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-10 02:22