工业硅、多晶硅日评：“反内卷”情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon supply may fall short of expectations, with potential restarts in the polysilicon sector leading to a price rebound. Driven by the "anti-involution" sentiment, industrial silicon futures and spot prices are rising in tandem, and may continue to strengthen in the short term. In the long term, the selling pressure after the rebound may stimulate the resumption of production in the southwest region, and upward pressure remains [1]. - Affected by the supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment, the polysilicon market is firm. In the short term, driven by bullish sentiment, prices may continue to strengthen with increased volatility [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Data - Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,500 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was also flat at 9,050 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main) increased by 75 yuan to 360 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices: N - type polysilicon material rose 2.63% to 39 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 39,270 yuan/ton, up 2.31%. The basis increased by 115 yuan to - 270 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Silicon Spot Prices: Different grades and regions showed different price trends. For example, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 in Sichuan increased by 0.61% to 8,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of oxygenated 553 in Kunming increased by 0.58% to 8,650 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon Spot Prices: N - type dense material rose 2.63% to 39 yuan/kg, while other types like polysilicon re - feedstock remained unchanged [1]. - Silicon Wafer Prices: N - type 210R rose 1.01% to 1 yuan/piece, and N - type 183mm rose 1.15% to 0.88 yuan/piece. On July 9th, N - type silicon wafers had a significant price increase, with an average increase of 0.1 - 0.15 yuan/piece [1]. - Battery and Component Prices: All battery and component prices remained unchanged on the day [1]. - Organic Silicon Prices: DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil prices remained unchanged. On July 9th, a Shandong monomer enterprise raised the online DMC quote to 10,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous level, and the DMC price is expected to fluctuate in the future [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories plan to cut production, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and a slow increase in enterprise operations. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some scheduled to resume production in July; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. - Polysilicon Supply and Demand: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with an expected slight increase in output to within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase in polysilicon price expectations, the terminal market remains weak due to the over - drawn demand in the first half of the year [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial Silicon: Short - term trading is recommended as prices may continue to strengthen. Long - term attention should be paid to the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon: Short - term trading is also recommended, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual start - up of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reform [1]. Other Information - Germany's industrial output in May increased by 1.2% month - on - month and 1% year - on - year, driven by the significant growth in the automotive industry. However, the construction industry output decreased by 3.9% month - on - month, and the energy industry output increased by 10.8% month - on - month. Excluding the construction and energy industries, industrial output increased by 1.4% month - on - month [1].