国新国证期货早报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 9, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated on July 9. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to 3493.05, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67. The trading volume reached 1505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 3991.40, down 7.05 from the previous day [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Price movement: The weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1461.4, up 33.1 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was strong, closing at 882.8 yuan, up 29.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Influencing factors: For coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but the profit is meager, and the daily output has been falling. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the procurement willingness of traders and steel mills has slightly improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines is starting to rise, the spot auction market has improved, and the terminal inventory has increased, but the overall inventory is decreasing [4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Price movement: Affected by the technical adjustment of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on July 9. The market expects the short - term decline of US sugar to be limited, and the expected decline in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June also affected the price [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Price movement: Due to the prediction of heavy rain in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly higher on July 9. The market is worried about the supply, and the night - session price also rose [5]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - Price movement: The CBOT soybean futures fell on July 9. The domestic soybean meal futures market showed a pattern of loose supply. The M2509 contract closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The inventory of soybean meal in coastal areas increased, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate and adjust [6]. 2.5. Live Pigs - Price movement: The live pig futures price fluctuated on July 9. The LH2509 contract closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the price lacks support [7]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Price movement: The US tariff policy and the slowdown of industrial demand in some economies have put pressure on copper prices. The domestic copper inventory has increased slightly, which has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment [7]. 2.7. Cotton - Price movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13880 yuan/ton on the night of July 9. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 39 lots [7]. 2.8. Logs - Price movement: The 2509 log futures opened at 785, with the lowest at 780.5, the highest at 787, and closed at 7853.5, with a reduction of 389 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The port inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [8]. 2.9. Steel - Price movement: The rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke are stable and slightly strong, but the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, and the steel market may show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. 2.10. Alumina - Price movement: The ao2509 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy and the rectification of the photovoltaic industry have stimulated the bullish sentiment, and the price has broken through the 3100 - yuan mark [9]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - Price movement: The al2508 contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton. The spot market was weak, the inventory in the East China region continued to increase, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure is increasing [9][10].