宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of international crude oil are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PX has a solid bottom support due to its low inventory, but its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to increase in supply, with a weakening market sentiment and a difficult - to - change situation of near - strong and far - weak. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA has some support when polyester does not significantly reduce production, but may become relatively weak if polyester production cuts expand. The profit distribution of the industrial chain is tilted towards raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to be tight, and the market has increased buying enthusiasm. The polyester industry chain is expected to see PX, PTA, and PR oscillate, following cost fluctuations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On July 9, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $68.38 per barrel, up 0.07%; Brent crude oil was $70.19 per barrel, up 0.06%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $598.25 per ton, up 2.00%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $724.00 per ton, up 0.63%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $850.00 per ton, up 0.32% [1] - PTA: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.08%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the settlement price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,748 yuan per ton, down 1.04%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,755 yuan per ton, down 1.04%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $638.00 per ton, up 0.47%. The near - far month spread was 56 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan; the basis was 37 yuan per ton, down 58 yuan [1] - PX: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 6,716 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,890 yuan per ton, up 0.32%; the settlement price was 6,890 yuan per ton, up 0.32%. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,736 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $850.00 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $825.00 per ton, up 0.24%. The PXN spread was $251.75 per ton, down 3.48%; the PX - MX spread was $126.00 per ton, down 1.43%; the basis was 12 yuan per ton, down 28 yuan [1] - PR: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,880 yuan per ton, up 0.24%; the settlement price was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 65 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan; in the South China market, it was 120 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan [1] - Downstream: On July 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,680 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chip was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chip was 5,945 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 86.87%, down 0.43%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was not available, compared with 71.93% previously; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.22%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On July 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 43.00%, up 9.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 61.00%, up 16.00%; the sales rate of polyester chip was 49.00%, up 1.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important Information - OPEC+ actual production increase was weaker than policy expectations, EIA lowered the US crude oil production forecast, and the reduction of US API crude oil inventory supported oil prices. PTA will put into operation new devices in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. PX inventory is at a historical low, and its bottom support is strong. The downstream polyester factories have further reduced production, and the PTA supply is expected to increase, with a weakening market sentiment. The absolute value of PTA inventory is decreasing, but the relative value is at a five - year high. The polyester factories' actual maintenance in July led to a significant decrease in operation compared to June. The polyester industrial chain is driven by fundamentals, and the weakening supply - demand expectations led to price drops [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is weakly consolidating, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,718 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the daily trading volume of 867,400 lots; PX price is consolidating, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,724 yuan per ton (up 0.42%), and the daily trading volume of 177,100 lots; PR follows cost fluctuations, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,880 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the daily trading volume of 41,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will oscillate [2]