聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7,000 - 7,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.30%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 33.2% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline: - Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,300 - 7,400 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 120 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] Procurement Management - When inventory is low and want to lock in procurement costs: - Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7,100 - 7,200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the price falls [2] 3. Core Contradiction - PE supply has decreased recently: device overhauls are ongoing until mid - July; some full - density devices switched from LLDPE to HDPE due to high HDPE - LLDPE spread; PE imports from Iran may decline in July - August. Although PE demand is in the off - season, the demand in June was better than expected, indicating potential upward drivers for PE [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread led to production switch, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict may cause a decline in PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year [5] - The spot price has been weak [5] 6. Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis, L01, L05, L09 contracts, and various month - spreads showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North, East, and South China, as well as regional spreads, changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between HDPE and LLDPE products and LDPE and LLDPE products changed on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, methanol price, and various PE processing profits showed different changes on July 10, 2025, compared with previous days [8]