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尿素早评:供应仍有压力,转机在于出口-20250710
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-10 02:47

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned [1] 2. Core View - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. The price of urea in July is still supported by the top - dressing demand, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Price and Related Data - Futures Prices: On July 9, UR01, UR05, UR09, and Shandong urea futures prices (closing prices) were 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1770.00 yuan/ton, and 1840.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton (0.75%), 9.00 yuan/ton (0.52%), 7.00 yuan/ton (0.40%), and 20.00 yuan/ton (1.10%) compared to July 8 [1] - Spot Prices: Domestic spot prices in different regions on July 9 showed varying degrees of change compared to July 8. For example, the prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700.00 yuan/ton, 1840.00 yuan/ton, 1800.00 yuan/ton, 1880.00 yuan/ton, and 1850.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20.00 yuan/ton (1.19%), 30.00 yuan/ton (1.66%), 20.00 yuan/ton (1.12%), 0.00 yuan/ton (0.00%), and 10.00 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 11.00 yuan compared to July 8. The 01 - 05 spread was 0.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 4.00 yuan compared to July 8 [1] - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080.00 yuan/ton and 820.00 yuan/ton respectively on July 9 compared to July 8 [1] - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17.00 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) to 5006.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1763 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1770 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1771 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 211186 lots [1] Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong - side shock and closed at 1770. The supply pressure of urea is still large, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still about 880,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, so low - buying opportunities can be considered. But if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1]