铝产业链日评：国内铝土矿7月供需预期偏松，国内铝锭和铝棒总库存量环增-20250710

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250710: The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased month-on-month [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased month-on-month [1] - The price of alumina may still have room to rise, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels [3] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be slightly stronger, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels [3] - The price of cast aluminum alloy may still have room to rise, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy [3] Summary by Directory Market Data - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: On July 9, 2025, the closing price was 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 102,569 lots, down 7,014 lots; the open interest was 250,099 lots, down 4,627 lots; the inventory was 47,818 tons, up 600 tons [2] - Shanghai Aluminum Basis: The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 145 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spread between the near-month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum was 185 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Alumina Spot Price: The national average price of alumina was 3,124.52 yuan/ton, up 4.56 yuan from the previous day; the average prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou increased by 10 yuan respectively; the average prices in Lianyungang and Bayuquan remained unchanged; the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Alumina Futures Price: On July 9, 2025, the closing price was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 351,714 lots, down 88,255 lots; the open interest was 248,656 lots, down 19,098 lots; the inventory was 18,612 tons, unchanged [2] - London Aluminum: The closing price of LME 3-month aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9,660 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous day; the spread between the 0-3 month contract of LME aluminum futures was 22.37 US dollars/ton, down 28.94 US dollars; the spread between the 3-15 month contract was -48.74 US dollars/ton, down 37.98 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai-London aluminum prices was 7.8843, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - Alumina: In the second quarter of 2025, Vedanta's Lanji gacti alumina production reached a record high of 687,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36%; the quarterly production of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1% and flat month-on-month [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The theoretical average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton; the production capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum have decreased or remained flat compared with last week; the proportion of aluminum water production by domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The domestic scrap aluminum production and import volume in July may increase month-on-month; the production capacity utilization rate of domestic primary aluminum alloy has decreased compared with last week; the production capacity utilization rate of domestic recycled aluminum alloy has remained flat compared with last week [3] Trading Strategies - Alumina: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels, paying attention to the support level around 2,600-2,800 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 3,300-3,600 yuan/ton [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels, paying attention to the support level around 20,000-20,200 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 20,800-21,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300-2,500 US dollars/ton and the resistance level around 2,050-2,750 US dollars/ton for London aluminum [3] - Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support level around 19,500-19,700 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 19,900-20,000 yuan/ton [3]