中原期货晨会纪要-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that China's June CPI turned positive after four consecutive months of decline, and the core CPI continued to rise. The US announced new tariff policies, and the Fed's internal views on interest rates are divided. The EU is ready to counter - US trade measures. These factors will have an impact on the global financial and commodity markets [7][8]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, agricultural products such as peanuts are in a weak supply - demand situation, while the outlook for oils and fats is relatively strong. In the energy and chemical sector, urea shows a short - term upward trend, and in the industrial metals sector, copper prices are affected by tariff policies, and aluminum is in a weak market situation [12][13][14]. - In the stock market, A - shares are affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies and trade tariff policies. The market can be observed from new and traditional directions, and investors need to pay attention to market fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Global Stock Indexes: On July 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.492% to 44458.30, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.945% to 20611.34, the S&P 500 rose 0.606% to 6263.26, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.059% to 23892.32 [2]. - Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.31 with a 0.076% increase, the US dollar index fell 0.051% to 97.44, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - Commodity Futures: In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.347% to 3322.50, COMEX silver fell 0.867% to 36.61, etc. In the domestic market, gold rose 0.548% to 771.02, silver fell 0.326% to 8870.00, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China's Economic Data: In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, hitting a 14 - month high. The PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year [7]. - US Tariff Policy: Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective from August 1 [7]. - China's Employment Policy: The State Council issued new employment support policies, including expanding loan support, increasing unemployment insurance return ratios, etc. [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to view it as a low - level shock [12]. - Oils and Fats: The total turnover of oils and fats decreased by 75% compared with the previous trading day. The开机率 of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile [12]. - Sugar: The sugar price is expected to continue a technical rebound, but attention should be paid to the pressure at the 5800 integer mark [12]. - Corn: The corn market is under pressure from imports and wheat substitution. The 2330 yuan level is the key point, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs in the next 2 - 3 months is relatively abundant, and the room for price increases is limited [14]. - Eggs: The egg price is expected to bottom out and rebound due to factors such as reduced production and increased demand [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals of caustic soda lack strong support, and it rebounds with the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [14]. - Urea: The supply of urea is relatively sufficient, and the demand is gradually recovering. The futures price shows a strong and volatile trend [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The US tariff policy on copper has a significant impact on copper prices. The aluminum market is in a weak situation due to factors such as increased production and weak demand [14][15][16]. - Alumina: The production capacity of alumina has decreased, and the cost is expected to decline slightly. The price rebounds with the market, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [16]. - Steel Products: The steel market is affected by the off - season and macro - environment. The steel price fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the resistance levels of rebar at 3100 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3300 yuan [16]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market rebounds in the short term, but the long - term over - capacity situation remains. The trading idea is short - term long and long - term short [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: During the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, the coking coal price rebounds, and the double - coking market is short - term strong and volatile [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is supported by factors such as maintenance and low warehouse receipts, but it is also restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock Indexes: A - shares are affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies and trade tariff policies. The market can be observed from new and traditional directions. Investors should pay attention to market fluctuations and choose appropriate investment strategies [17][18][19]. - Options: Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility [20][21].