铅锌日评：区间整理-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices expected to be range - bound and firm. However, high lead prices may limit downstream purchasing, capping the upside potential [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disruptions have led to a rebound in zinc prices. But the rebound suppresses downstream purchasing, causing inventory accumulation and limited upside. Opportunities to short may emerge after positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Prices and Trading Data: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.59% to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.09% to 17,175 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 7.42% to 33,005 lots, while the open interest increased 1.25% to 52,261 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.71% to 2,058.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 0.62% to 8.34 [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited supplies, and hoarding by recyclers have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. - Industry News: In June, the silver by - product output of primary lead smelters increased 1.3% month - on - month. In July, it may decline slightly due to regular maintenance. The additional tariff negotiation for the US REDDOG lead ore may end with both parties sharing the cost, and the ore will enter the domestic market by the end of the third quarter. Zhongse Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to expand the production scale of the Baiyinnuoer lead - zinc mine from 990,000 tons/year to 1.65 million tons/year [1]. Zinc - Prices and Trading Data: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.55% to 22,090 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.32% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 2.53% to 154,513 lots, and the open interest decreased 3.46% to 114,762 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.86% to 2,742.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 0.54% to 8.07 [1]. - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, reducing production constraints and cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have increased, with an obvious upward trend in output. Demand is weak, and downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs [1]. - Industry News: In the second quarter of 2025, the Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate. In June, production was affected by capacity - bottleneck upgrades and low - grade ore processing. After the first - stage upgrade, the daily available time of the DMS system increased from 6 to 16 hours. The second - stage upgrade in August is expected to increase the annual processing capacity from 800,000 to 960,000 tons, and the DMS available time to 22 hours/day. The annual zinc production guidance remains at 180,000 - 240,000 tons [1].