甲醇日评：择机做多MTO利润-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a situation where upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively high. Currently, the supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is expected that the 09 contract will operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.55%); MA09 closed at 2372 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Spot prices in most regions declined. For example, the price in Taicang dropped from 2405 yuan/ton to 2380 yuan/ton (- 1.04%), and in Shaanxi from 2070 yuan/ton to 2045 yuan/ton (- 1.21%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 15 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 433.4 yuan/ton to 423.4 yuan/ton (- 2.31%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1] - MTO Profits: Northwest MTO profit increased from 377.8 yuan/ton to 418 yuan/ton (10.64%); East China MTO profit increased from - 813.57 yuan/ton to - 792.07 yuan/ton (2.64%) [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: Profits of most downstream products increased. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 395.94 yuan/ton to 403.92 yuan/ton (2.02%), and the profit of MTBE increased from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1] 3.4. Important Information - Domestic Futures Prices: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2365 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 817,883 lots and an open interest of 711,306 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. In the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of other regional cargoes is + 0.8 - 2%. The methanol price in Southeast Asia is weakly sorted due to weak demand [1] 3.5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis for the methanol market. Considering the current profit situation, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]