锰硅篇：2011-2015年熊市周期与当前周期的比较

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2011 to the present, the price of ferromanganese silicon has experienced three fluctuation cycles, and it may currently be in the fourth downward cycle. The low price in June this year has broken through the low of the second cycle. The price fluctuations are affected by factors such as supply - side reform, demand changes, policy drives, and supply disruptions [5]. - The global manganese resource supply continues to expand, leading to a weakening of global manganese ore prices due to the oversupply situation. The production distribution of global manganese - based metals has changed significantly, with South Africa's dominant position strengthening and Gabon rising rapidly [6][12]. - The quotations of overseas mining enterprises and ports are oscillating downward, causing the production cost center of ferromanganese silicon to shift downward. The oversupply of manganese ore, weak port quotations, and reduced production costs all contribute to the downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [13][15]. - The ferromanganese silicon production is concentrated in the northern regions, while the over - capacity problem in the southern regions persists. The overall capacity of ferromanganese silicon continues to expand, but the regional distribution is uneven, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand [25]. - In the second half of 2025, there may be a concentrated production of ferromanganese silicon, mainly in Inner Mongolia in the northern region. With the development of new energy projects, the production cost of ferromanganese silicon may be further compressed [26]. - The raw material ore end of ferromanganese silicon may be a factor for price rebound, but the overall oversupply situation mainly drives the price downward. The periodic fluctuations of manganese ore prices and the switching of ferromanganese silicon supply - demand affect the bearish cycle of ferromanganese silicon [28][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2011 - 2015 Bear Market Cycle and Current Cycle Comparison - From 2011 - 2015, the price of ferromanganese silicon continuously hit new lows due to the enrichment of manganese ore import structure, lower quotations, weakened cost support, and over - capacity [5]. - In 2011 - 2015, the global production of manganese - based metals increased, but the production distribution changed significantly. The production in Australia, Brazil, India, China, etc., decreased to some extent [12]. - During 2013 - 2015, the production of ferromanganese silicon decreased sharply, while the production of crude steel remained stable. The oversupply of manganese ore, lower port quotations, and reduced production costs led to a downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [14][15]. Manganese Silicon Historical Price Review - From 2011 - 2025 to date, the price of ferromanganese silicon has gone through three fluctuation cycles: 2011 - 2015 (downward), 2016 - 2018 (supply - side reform with rising prices), 2018 - 2020 (weak demand with over - capacity intensification), 2020 - 2021 (policy - driven rebound), 2021 - 2024 (deepening over - capacity), 2024 (price fluctuations due to supply disruptions and production adjustments) [5]. Global Manganese Resource Supply - The global manganese resource supply continues to expand, and the oversupply of manganese ore has led to a weakening of global ore prices. The production distribution of global manganese - based metals has changed, with South Africa strengthening its dominant position and Gabon rising rapidly [6][12]. Manganese Ore Quotations and Production Costs - The quotations of overseas mining enterprises and ports are oscillating downward, causing the production cost center of ferromanganese silicon to shift downward. The oversupply of manganese ore, weak port quotations, and reduced production costs all contribute to the downward expectation of ferromanganese silicon prices [13][15]. Manganese Silicon Capacity and Production Distribution - From 2011 - 2024, the national ferromanganese silicon capacity increased from 1598000 tons to 2859000 tons, with an expansion of 44%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had more obvious capacity expansions [18]. - The production of ferromanganese silicon is concentrated in the northern regions, while the over - capacity problem in the southern regions persists. The overall capacity of ferromanganese silicon continues to expand, but the regional distribution is uneven, resulting in a prominent imbalance between supply and demand [23][25]. New Energy and Ferromanganese Silicon Cost - In the second half of 2025, there may be a concentrated production of ferromanganese silicon, mainly in Inner Mongolia in the northern region. With the development of "source - network - load - storage" projects and the increase in the proportion of green power use, the production cost of ferromanganese silicon may be further compressed [26]. Factors Affecting Ferromanganese Silicon Prices - The raw material ore end of ferromanganese silicon may be a factor for price rebound, but the overall oversupply situation mainly drives the price downward. The periodic fluctuations of manganese ore prices and the switching of ferromanganese silicon supply - demand affect the bearish cycle of ferromanganese silicon [28][31].