安粮观市

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - Macro: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - Crude Oil: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - Gold: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - Silver: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - Chemicals: - PTA: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - PVC: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - PP: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - Plastic: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - Soda Ash: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - Glass: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - Rubber: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - Methanol: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - Agricultural Products: - Corn: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - Peanut: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - Cotton: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - Pig: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - Egg: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - Soybean Meal: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - Soybean Oil: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - Metals: - Copper: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - Aluminum: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - Alumina: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - Lithium Carbonate: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - Polysilicon: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - Black Metals: - Stainless Steel: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - Iron Ore: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - Coal: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - PTA: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - PVC: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - PP: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - Plastic: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - Soda Ash: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - Glass: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - Corn: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - Peanut: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - Cotton: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - Pig: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - Egg: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - Soybean Meal: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - Soybean Oil: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - Copper: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - Aluminum: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - Alumina: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - Lithium Carbonate: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - Polysilicon: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - Stainless Steel: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - Iron Ore: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - Coal: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].