Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term rebound, long-term supply-demand surplus, focus on whether the 2509 contract can effectively break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound, pay attention to the trends of hot metal and supply side [2] - Rolled steel: Rebound, short-term supply contraction expectation, mild demand decline [2] - Glass: Rebound, short-term valuation is relatively low, pay attention to downstream demand recovery [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai Composite 50 rebounds, CSI 300 oscillates, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 go up, it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2-year and 5-year treasury bonds oscillate, 10-year treasury bond rebounds, hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation, pay attention to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [5] - Oils and fats: Oscillation, palm oil may be relatively stronger supported by production reduction in the origin [5] - Meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [5] - Live pigs: Rebound, the price is expected to continue rising [7] - Rubber: Rebound, expected to maintain a wide-range oscillating trend [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [9] - MEG: Try shorting at high prices [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities including black industry, financial products, precious metals, light industrial products, agricultural products, and soft commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply-demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Recently, the iron ore futures price rebounded due to emotional influence. The end-of-quarter rush of mines is basically over, and the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The short-term supply is still loose. In the long term, the supply will gradually increase, the demand will be relatively low, and the port inventory will enter the accumulation stage. The 2509 contract should focus on whether it can effectively break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by supply-side reform news and Tangshan's production restrictions, the prices of black commodities rose, and raw materials followed. The supply of the coking coal and coke market is expected to increase. Coke prices were suppressed by steel mills, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increased. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and supply side [2] - Rolled steel: The "anti-involution" in the supply side has boosted positive sentiment. If the hard emission reduction measures in Tangshan are implemented as planned, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The demand for building materials has slightly increased in the off-season, and the profits of the five major steel products are acceptable. The total inventory of steel products remains flat, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive news in the glass fundamentals. The speculative sentiment in the small-plate market in Shahe has been reignited. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons to meet the seasonal inventory reduction. The demand is expected to weaken in the rainy season, and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is still at a high level in the same period of the past two years [2] - Soda ash: The long-term real estate industry is still in the adjustment period, and the glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short-term valuation is relatively low, and the futures price has risen sharply due to emotional influence. Pay attention to the downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite 300 index fell by 0.18%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index fell by 0.26%, the CSI 500 index fell by 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by 0.27%. The funds flowed into the education and diversified finance sectors, and flowed out of the precious metals and insurance sectors. China's economic data shows resilience, and the market risk aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year China bond at maturity remained flat, FR007 remained flat, and SHIBOR3M decreased by 1bp. The central bank carried out 75.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal on the day was 23 billion yuan. The market interest rate is consolidating, and the treasury bond trend has a narrow rebound. Hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] Precious Metals - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and risk aversion attributes of gold are affected by various factors such as the US debt problem, global interest rates, and geopolitical risks. The current logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and it is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4] - Silver: It is in a high-level oscillation state. Pay attention to the release of June CPI data and the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The short-term market risk aversion sentiment has rebounded, boosting the gold price. The market has postponed the expected earliest interest rate cut by the Fed to October [4] Light Industrial Products - Pulp: The spot market prices showed mixed trends. The cost price decline weakened the support for pulp prices. The papermaking industry's profitability is at a low level, and the demand is in the off-season. The pulp fundamentals present a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [5] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports increased slightly last week. The shipment volume from New Zealand to China in May increased by 18% compared with the previous month. The expected arrival volume this week decreased by 25.73% month-on-month. The port inventory decreased by 130,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The cost-side support has strengthened. The short-term supply pressure has eased, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant. Pay attention to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [5] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month-on-month. With Malaysia continuing to lower the export tariff of palm oil in July, the strong export momentum is expected to continue, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may decline. The B40 policy in Indonesia is still undecided. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply concerns have been eliminated. Crude oil has dragged down the oils and fats, while the US biodiesel policy expectation has boosted the oils and fats. The domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats continues to rise, and the supply is abundant while the demand is in the off-season. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and palm oil may be relatively stronger supported by production reduction in the origin [5] - Meals: The soybean planting area in 2025 was only slightly adjusted compared with the March intention. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the extreme high-temperature weather is expected to decrease in the coming weeks. South American soybeans have a bumper harvest, and the soybean market remains weak. The domestic import of soybeans in July is expected to be about 10 million tons. The inventory of soybean meal has continued to rise, and it is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The current pig farmers have a strong sentiment of holding back prices, and the pig prices in the north are moving smoothly. The supply of pigs in the south is expected to be tight in July, and the prices may continue to rise. The average trading weight of pigs across the country has continued to decline. The price of pork has risen following the increase in pig prices, and the terminal procurement enthusiasm has significantly increased. The average settlement price of pigs at key slaughtering enterprises across the country has continued to rise, and the opening rate has decreased slightly. It is expected that the pig prices will continue to rise in the next period [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: On the supply side, the natural rubber production areas at home and abroad are generally affected by rainfall, and the raw material supply is tight. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of the tire industry in China has shown a structural recovery. The inventory of natural rubber in China has increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory at Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide-range oscillating trend [9] - PX: The positive driving force is limited, and the oil price faces a callback risk. The PX load has slightly declined, and the PTA load has slightly oscillated and rebounded, but the polyester load has slightly decreased. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX remain tight, and the PX price fluctuates with the oil price [9] - PTA: The cost side oscillates after a decline, the overall supply of PTA fluctuates narrowly, and the load of downstream polyester factories has slightly decreased. In the medium term, the supply and demand of PTA will weaken. The short-term PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost [9] - MEG: The arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory has increased last week. It is gradually entering a period of supply and demand inventory accumulation. With the rapid recovery of coal-based production capacity, the supply pressure may emerge, and the price is under pressure to fluctuate [9] - PR: The terminal is gradually replenishing at low prices, and the supply side continues to tighten. The polyester bottle chip market has limited room for further decline. However, the spot circulation is still loose, and in the short term, it may operate in a range [9] - PF: Although the overnight oil price continued to rise, the downstream orders remain sluggish, and the sales data of the polyester staple fiber market have been weak recently. Without new positive news, it is expected to weaken and consolidate today [9]
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-10）-20250710
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-10 03:29