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光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 03:28

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the spot price of urea strengthened slightly, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily output was 19.91 tons, a daily decrease of 0.03 tons. The Indian tender provides support, but the final impact needs further observation. The market remains firm, and subsequent focus should be on the final tender price and export policy [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the spot price of soda ash was still being adjusted downward in some areas. The trading sentiment was subdued, but the futures market rose for several days. The industry's operating rate reached 82.58%. The supply and demand of the spot market are weak, and the price is in a downward range. Attention should be paid to inventory data, market sentiment, and downstream production changes [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the spot price of glass remained stable at 1,173 yuan/ton. The supply was stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.84 tons. The demand continued to follow up, but the trading atmosphere declined slightly. The market drive is limited, and the price needs more positive factors to rise [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On July 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 2,245, a decrease of 362 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.91 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.02 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.98%, a 3.36 - percentage - point increase from 82.62% in the same period last year [4]. - On July 9, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, with Shandong and Henan at 1,840 yuan/ton, up 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On July 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,736, a decrease of 297 from the previous trading day, with 476 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, a decrease of 3 from the previous trading day [7]. - On July 9, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased. For example, the light soda ash in North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and in East China, it dropped by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - On July 9, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.58%, up from 82.2% the previous working day [8]. - On July 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and price spreads of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][15][19][20][22]. Group 5: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].