海外札记：“大美丽法案”市场冲击或有限

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]