6月通胀数据解读：金价、油价，如何影响通胀？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In June 2025, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Gold prices and oil prices affected inflation, with gold contributing to the rise of core CPI but not being the main factor, and the increase in oil prices being offset by the off - season of domestic production and the weakening of the "rush - export" effect on PPI [6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Two Core Concerns about Prices Amid Gold and Oil Price Fluctuations (1) Is the Recovery of Core CPI Driven by Gold Prices or the Recovery of the Demand Side? - Core CPI can be split into services, core consumer goods (excluding gold), and gold. In the first half of 2025, core CPI increased by 0.5% cumulatively month - on - month, with gold contributing 0.13%, services contributing 0.17%, and other core consumer goods contributing 0.2%. Gold boosted core CPI but was not the main factor. The core consumer goods excluding gold were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, and a new round of consumption stimulus policies may be introduced [12]. (2) Why Did PPI Decrease Year - on - Year in June Despite the Sharp Increase in Oil Prices? - In June, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained at - 0.4%. Although the 9% increase in crude oil prices pulled PPI up by about 0.3 percentage points, the off - season of domestic production and the weakening of the "rush - export" effect offset this impact. In the off - season of domestic production, industries such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non - metallic mineral products, coal - related industries, and power and heat production and supply affected PPI to decline by about 0.33 percentage points. After the weakening of the "rush - export" effect, the prices of some export - oriented industries continued to fall [16]. II. June CPI: Food Performed Better than Seasonal Trends, and Oil and Gold Prices Supported the Month - on - Month Recovery, with the Year - on - Year Increase Reaching 0.1% (1) Food Items - The month - on - month decline of the CPI food item in June fell back to around - 0.4%, better than the seasonal trend, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.09 percentage points. Pork prices decreased by 1.2% due to oversupply. Fresh food prices were better than the seasonal trend, with freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rising by 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, while eggs and fresh fruits dragged down the CPI [20]. (2) Non - food Items - The month - on - month of the CPI non - food item recovered to around 0. Oil prices rebounded, with gasoline prices rising by 0.4%. Core consumer goods were mainly dragged down by clothing and automobiles, while gold prices were the main supporting factor, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.01 percentage points. Tourism was weaker than the seasonal trend, and rent increased during the graduation season, with little change in overall service prices [21][27][30]. III. June PPI: The Off - season of Domestic Production and the Drag of Some Export Industries Led to a Year - on - Year Decline to - 3.6% (1) Overall - The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, and consumer goods also weakened. Production materials prices decreased by 0.6%, and consumer goods prices turned negative [35]. (2) By Industry - In June 2025, the number of industries with falling prices among industrial producers remained around two - thirds. The main supporting factor was the crude oil industry chain. The drag factors included raw material manufacturing industries such as building materials, energy prices of coal and electricity, and export - related industries such as electronic equipment, electrical machinery, and textiles [37][41][43].