Changjiang Securities·2025-07-10 05:05Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is entering a new cycle driven by the upgrade of intelligent driving technology, with the "old-for-new" policy expected to boost domestic demand throughout 2025 [3][10] - The industry is experiencing significant trends in SUVs and new energy vehicles, now transitioning into intelligent driving, with a clearer market leader landscape emerging [3][7] Group 1: Market Conditions - Total demand has been improving, with strong performance in new energy vehicles. In the first four months of 2025, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 8.638 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6][22] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 46.8% in the first four months of 2025, with wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars growing by 45.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The low-end market (below 80,000 yuan) saw a significant increase in sales, growing by 69.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, while the mid-range and high-end markets experienced declines [30][32] Group 2: Trends in Technology - The automotive sector is witnessing a technological leap with "end-to-end" advancements in intelligent driving, transitioning from policy-driven to consumer-driven growth in new energy vehicle penetration [7][10] - The penetration rate of high-level intelligent driving (L2 and above) is expected to grow rapidly, potentially reaching 10%-50% in the coming years [7][10] Group 3: Market Structure - The market structure is becoming clearer, with a focus on the expansion of market share. The market share of domestic brands rose to 65.4% in the first four months of 2025 [8][10] - In the high-end market (above 250,000 yuan), the market share of BBA (BMW, Benz, Audi) and Tesla remains significant at 38.6%, while domestic brands have substantial room for growth [8][10] Group 4: New Growth Opportunities - In the first four months of 2025, China's passenger car exports reached 1.607 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 46% of exports [9][10] - The acceleration of electrification in Europe presents new opportunities for domestic companies, despite a temporary slowdown in the pace of new energy vehicle adoption [9][10] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong intelligent driving vehicles as alpha opportunities in the new cycle of intelligent driving upgrades [10] - Key investment targets include Xiaomi Group, Xpeng Motors, Geely, BYD, and Li Auto, particularly those affected by price reductions from joint ventures [10]