贵金属日报：会议纪要显示联储官员内部意见分化-20250710

Market News and Important Data - The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that officials were divided on interest rate cuts, with views falling into three camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [1] - The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1st, and an agreement may be reached in the next few days. According to British media, the US and the EU will sign a temporary framework agreement, but the treatment will be worse than that of the UK. Trump sent tariff letters to eight countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 766.82 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 310,838 lots, and the open interest was 181,258 lots. In the night session, it opened at 767.50 yuan/gram and closed at 771.02 yuan/gram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,940 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 613,081 lots, and the open interest was 327,567 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,880 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,870 yuan/kilogram, down 0.33% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.42%, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.48%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 9, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,504 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 795 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 439,015 lots, up 79.07% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 95 lots, and the short positions remained unchanged. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contracts on the previous trading day was 921,222 lots, down 28.68% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 31.09 tons to 14,966.24 tons [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 9, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 12.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -590.21 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.17, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 89.67, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 38,972 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,922 kilograms, up 57.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 19,910 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 188,940 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The market is concerned about the uncertain tariff policy, and the US Treasury yield has been rising for five consecutive days and is now gradually slowing down. The market trend is currently tangled, and the gold price is expected to be range-bound in the short term [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The gold-silver ratio is relatively high. If there is a need for hedging in the future, silver may be more favored by investors due to its relatively lower price compared to gold. Therefore, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]