锌锭累库趋势或已形成

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation trend may have formed. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may drive the zinc price to return, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$9.88 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,090 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On July 9, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton and closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 154,513 lots, a decrease of 4,004 lots. The open interest was 114,762 lots, a decrease of 4,112 lots. The highest price was 22,175 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,980 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. As of July 9, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot Market: The upward movement of the futures market dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and the spot premium further declined [4] - Supply: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The output in July is expected to be as high as 590,000 tons, and the supply pressure remains [4] - Inventory: The increase in social inventory has expanded, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may have occurred [4] - Cost: The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, and the supply pressure still exists [4]