光大期货软商品日报-20250710

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions increasing by 3,515 to 546,800. In the international market, the overall drivers are limited recently, and the U.S. cotton planted area exceeds expectations with good growth. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton showed a V - shaped trend and closed slightly higher. Considering low imports, low inventories, and weather disturbances on the one hand, and new - cotton high - yield expectations and weak demand during the off - season on the other hand, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound, with the 09 contract likely to perform better than 01 [2]. - Sugar: Platts expects a 9.7% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June, and a 9.8% decrease in sugar production. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is accelerating inventory clearance. The spot price of sugar has some adjustments, and the futures price of raw sugar rebounded due to the expected decline in Brazil's bi - weekly production. The market should focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Research Views - Cotton: The international market has limited drivers, with the U.S. cotton planted area exceeding expectations and good growth. The domestic market has both upward and downward drivers but with limited strength. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to range - bound, and the 09 contract may be better than 01 [2]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production are expected to decline. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is clearing inventory, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,354 yuan, down 54 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,163 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 164 yuan, up 9 yuan; the main - contract basis is 296 yuan, down 37 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,040 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,075 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On July 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 39 to 9,932, and the effective forecasts were 266. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth loads and inventories also had corresponding changes [4]. - Sugar: On July 9, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou changed, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, with 106 effective forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]