Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation. Production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand declined. With the expectation of crude steel production cuts, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose slightly. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable. With some market participants having policy expectations, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased. With steel prices oscillating upward and market sentiment optimistic, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. Supply - demand has slightly improved, but the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2510 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume declined. National building materials production decreased by 14.27 tons to 416.01 tons, social inventory increased by 9.05 tons to 530 tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.51 tons to 316.13 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 24.46 tons to 409.47 tons. Shanxi steel mills received a notice of 10% - 30% crude steel production cuts [1] - Iron Ore: The closing price of the i2509 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Port spot prices rose. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 3.32%. Spot prices in some areas rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable [1] - Coke: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 2.21%. Port spot prices rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased [1] - Manganese Silicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5718 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 7292 to 37.06 million. Spot prices in some areas rose. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity and a decrease in the initial inquiry price [3] - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5392 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The main contract positions increased by 621 to 19.13 million. Spot prices in some areas changed. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity. Supply - demand has slightly improved [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 24.0, down 4.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26.5, up 0.5 [4] - Basis: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 97.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 31.0, down 1.3 [4] - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3160.0, up 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 725.0, up 2.0 [4] - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit was 76.8, down 21.5; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 127.0, down 1.0 [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][15] - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [40][41][42][43] - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][46][48][49] Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [52] - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]
黑色商品日报（2025年7月10日）-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 05:04