新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购积极性逐步增加，铅价震荡上行-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream enterprises are gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with spot procurement starting to pick up. It is recommended to mainly use buying hedging on dips for lead products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - Spot: On July 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.04/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells rose by 50 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,005 lots, down 2,644 lots from the previous trading day, and the holding volume was 52,261 lots, up 644 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,280 yuan/ton and a low of 17,125 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex - factory; in Hunan, smelters' quotes remained at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract; in Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory had difficulty in closing deals; in Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. The lead price was in a volatile consolidation, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, with regional transactions in the electrolytic lead market being fair [2]. - Inventory: On July 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of July 9, the LME lead inventory was 255,100 tons, a decrease of 2,975 tons from the previous trading day [3].