Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: The corn market is expected to be volatile and weak. The 9 - 1 spread is rapidly shrinking, and if the support is ineffective, the futures price may approach the 2200 range. Attention should be paid to the auction and transaction of imported corn [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. Due to concerns about tariff disputes and the upcoming USDA reports, the market lacks clear guidance, and the funds' attention has declined. Short - term unilateral participation and holding 91, 15 positive spreads are recommended [1]. - Edible Oils: The edible oil market is expected to be volatile and weak. The palm oil has led the rise, but the supply of domestic edible oils is generally loose, and the weak demand suppresses the spot market. Unilateral intraday trading is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg market is expected to be volatile. With the approach of the peak demand season after the plum - rain season, the demand will boost the egg price, but considering the supply pressure, the peak price is expected to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market stabilizes [1][2]. - Pigs: The pig market is expected to be volatile. The pig price is under pressure but also has support. Short - term volatility is expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of the feed end and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: On Wednesday, the corn futures closed with a doji. The 9 - month contract fell to a low of 2310 and then rebounded. The weighted contract's position increased after two months of reduction. The spot price was under pressure due to imported corn auctions. In the Northeast, the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and in the North China, the price was weak. The sales area price remained firm. The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will continue the imported corn auction in mid - July [1]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean fell for the third consecutive day. Concerns about tariff disputes led to fund selling. The market is waiting for the export sales report and the USDA 7 - month supply - demand report. Domestically, the protein meal fluctuated narrowly, the spot market was weak, and the import cost decreased [1]. - Edible Oils: The BMD palm oil rose for three consecutive days, but the weak CBOT soybean oil limited its upside. The Canadian rapeseed fell more than 3% due to technical selling. The MPOB will release the supply - demand report. Domestically, the palm oil led the rise, but the soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively weak, and the overall supply was loose [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures rebounded in the afternoon. The spot price was stable, and with the approach of the peak demand season, the demand will support the price, but the supply pressure exists [1][2]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the pig futures fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price was relatively stable. The northern market had price declines due to sales pressure, while the southern market had price support due to farmers' price - holding actions [2]. Market Information - Malaysian Palm Oil: BMI predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, the domestic consumption will decrease by 2% to 38 million tons due to slow biofuel target progress and stricter waste cooking oil trade restrictions [3]. - Soybean Crushing Profit: According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the spot crushing profit of 8 - 9 month - shipping soybeans in South China is - 40 - 10 yuan/ton. The purchase of 8 - month - shipping soybeans is basically completed, over 60% of the 9 - month - shipping soybeans have been purchased, and there are no purchases for the 10 - 1 month - shipping soybeans [3]. - USDA Report Forecasts: Reuters' analysts predict that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is 169.25 million tons, the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.334 billion bushels with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory is 126.31 million tons, the global 2025/26 corn ending inventory is 277.46 million tons, and the global 2025/26 wheat ending inventory is 262.69 million tons [3][4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][8][9][13]. - Contract Basis: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15][19][25][26].
光大期货农产品日报-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 05:10