Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 64,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 400 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 626 tons to 13,281 tons [3]. - In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. However, due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short-term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 9, and the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton needs to be monitored. In the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Therefore, short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices changed on July 9, 2025, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate in July are analyzed, including production, imports, consumption, and inventory accumulation [3]. - The short - term and long - term price trends of lithium carbonate are predicted, and attention points and potential trading opportunities are proposed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 9, 2025, are presented, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products, along with their price changes compared with the previous day [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13] 3.3 Spreads - Charts illustrate the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][37] 3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40] 4. Colored Research Team Member Introduction - The team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [43][44] 5. Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [47]
碳酸锂日报-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 05:10