EIA原油与汽油库存增加，美国加大对伊朗制裁

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] 2. Core View - The current market focuses on the progress of reciprocal tariff negotiations and whether the US, Iran, and Russia will intensify sanctions. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, indicating no significant progress in US - Iran negotiations. Some US lawmakers are considering higher tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. Geopolitical factors remain the biggest black swan in the future oil market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5 cents to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 4 cents to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase. The main contract of SC crude oil closed up 0.85% at 520 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending July 7, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 637,000 barrels to 8.124 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 416,000 barrels to 2.306 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.308 million barrels to 10.255 million barrels [1] - The US Treasury Department announced additional sanctions on Iran [1] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the Brazilian real's decline widened by 1.6% [1] - For the week ending July 4 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 464,000 barrels (previous value: - 1.493 million barrels), EIA crude oil inventory was 7.07 million barrels (expected: - 2.071 million barrels, previous value: 3.845 million barrels), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 238,000 barrels (previous value: 239,000 barrels) [1] - According to the EIA report, for the week of July 4, US crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 1.69% increase. The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease from the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. Commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.013 million barrels per day, a decrease of 906,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The increase in EIA crude oil inventory was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, the decrease in gasoline inventory was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025, and the decrease in domestic crude oil production was the largest since the week ending May 2, 2025 [1] Investment Logic - The market is concerned about tariff negotiations and potential sanctions. The US's increased sanctions on Iran and the consideration of tariffs on countries importing Russian oil show that geopolitical factors are the major uncertainty in the oil market [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Short - position allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: The US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil, and macro black - swan events occur - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]