农产品日报：天气扰动仍存，板块整体回升-20250710

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the domestic cotton price is supported in the short - term but restricted in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [5] - The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand, and the price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 6, the budding rate was 48%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; the bolling rate was 14%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 7 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year. The 25/26 global cotton market is in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment [2] - Domestic: The cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand is weak, restricting the upward space [2] Strategy - Adopt the idea of shorting far - month contracts on rallies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] - Forecast: The estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June in Brazil's central - southern region was 44.24 million tons, down 9.7% year - on - year; the sugar production was 2.95 million tons, down 9.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar: The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing the price in the long - term. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level. But the import profit is high, and the import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space [5] Strategy - Expect a range - bound and weak - oscillating pattern in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,106 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with sporadic fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and the domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [6] - Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [7]