宏观日报：宏观宽松延续，国债期货大多收涨-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting the certain expectation of short - term liquidity loosening. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, with a weak economic fundamentals and supportive loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but market focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.49, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.03 (-0.03%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1819, with a day - on - day increase of 0.011 (+0.15%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.62%); DR007 is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.90%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.50%); the 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.50%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Figures include the closing price trend of the continuous main contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with different terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with different terms in the past day, the trend of the precipitation funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of the open interest of each treasury bond futures variety, the net open - interest proportion of the top 20 traders in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - to - short open - interest ratio of the top 20 traders in each treasury bond futures variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][13][15][16][19][22][24] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local government bonds [29][31][34] 4. Spread Overview - Figures include the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the cross - variety spread of futures (4TS - T, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 3T - TL, 2TS - 3TF + T) [38][40][41][43] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [43][45][53] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [52][55] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [60][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]