FICC日报：MSC下半月价格下修，远东：欧洲航线价格依然在寻顶-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the second half of July decreased by 200 USD/FEU to 3000 USD/FEU, while the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam slightly increased by 50 USD/FEU to 3000 USD/FEU. The top of the freight rate may have appeared, and the subsequent focus is on whether other shipping companies will follow suit, especially the PA Alliance [3]. - The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, with a focus on the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies and the game of delivery. The 10 - month contract is a off - season contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation [3][4][5]. - The strategy includes a sideways movement of the main contract in the single - side trading, and a long 12 - short 10 and short 10 strategy in the arbitrage trading [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 76,890.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,843.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1353.40, 1190.80, 1332.50, 2012.50, 1390.00, and 1553.70 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2101.00 USD/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2089.00 USD/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4124.00 USD/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1557.77 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. Among them, 44 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 658,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [6]. - The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July was 294,100 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 305,000 TEU. There were 5 blank sailings in July (4 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance) [2]. 4. Supply Chain - The Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces held talks in Damascus, and the Syrian regime welcomed cooperation to defend national unity and territorial integrity [2]. - The rumored Maersk overtime ship MAERSK FREEPOT/5920TEU changed its route from the Far East - Europe route to the Far East - South America East route [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy There is no specific content in the provided text that directly elaborates on demand and European economy other than the potential impact on freight rates from factors such as European economic recovery or decline mentioned in the risk section.