黑色金属数据日报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The news of steel production restrictions helps warm up the sentiment in the futures market, but the follow - up momentum of the spot market is insufficient, and administrative interference may increase. The market expectations and confidence have improved [5]. - The futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke are rising in resonance. The first round of coke price increase is still in the making. The fundamentals of carbon elements may weaken in July [6]. - The short - term driving force of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and the prices are mainly fluctuating [7]. - Under the "anti - involution" trading, attention should be paid to the trends of new energy and photovoltaic related varieties. The short - term is not suitable to short the black market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On July 9, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3087 yuan/ton with a rise of 6 yuan (0.19%), HC2601 at 3201 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.09%), I2601 at 710 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan (0.71%), J2601 at 1491.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 25 yuan (1.70%), and JM2601 at 911 yuan/ton with a rise of 23.5 yuan (2.65%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton with a rise of 2 yuan (0.07%), HC2510 at 3190 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.09%), I2509 at 736.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan (0.68%), J2509 at 1456 yuan/ton with a rise of 34.5 yuan (2.43%), and JM2509 at 871.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 32 yuan (3.81%) [2]. - Spreads: On July 9, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was - 24 yuan/ton with a change of - 4 yuan, HC2510 - 2601 was 11 yuan/ton with a change of - 2 yuan, I2509 - 2601 was 26.5 yuan/ton with a change of 0.5 yuan, J2509 - 2601 was - 35.5 yuan/ton with a change of 10.5 yuan, and JM2509 - 2601 was - 39.5 yuan/ton with a change of 8 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit of the main contracts: the coil - screw spread was 127 yuan/ton with a change of - 1 yuan, the screw - ore ratio was 4.16 with a change of - 0.02, the coal - coke ratio was 1.67 with a change of - 0.02, the screw disk profit was - 162.03 yuan with a change of - 21.53 yuan, and the coking disk profit was 296.91 yuan with a change of - 5.74 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: On July 9, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou threaded steel were 3170 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 3230 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Platts Index was 95.3 (up 0.1). The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3210 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3290 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and 3200 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The billet - material spread was 260 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and the price of PB at Rizhao Port was 727 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan). The prices of imported ore at Qingdao Port, carbon coking coal, coking coal at Ganqimao Port, and quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port were 615 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), 650 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), 840 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 1280 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. - Basis: On July 9, the basis of HC main contract was 20 yuan/ton with a change of 1 yuan, RB main contract was 107 yuan/ton with a change of 40 yuan, I main contract was 9 yuan/ton (unchanged), J main contract was - 44.66 yuan/ton with a change of - 31.5 yuan, and JM main contract was - 1.5 yuan/ton with a change of - 13 yuan [2]. Industry Analysis - Steel: The news of production restrictions warms up the futures market sentiment, but the follow - up of the spot market is insufficient. The market confidence in the spot market is not strong in the off - season. The administrative interference probability of production restrictions will increase from July to August. The unilateral trend turns to shock, and the basis is approaching the time node for re - entering the spot - futures positive arbitrage [5][9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The futures and spot markets are rising in resonance. The first round of coke price increase is expected. The fundamentals of carbon elements may weaken in July. Industrial customers can continue to seize the premium opportunity to establish spot - futures positive arbitrage positions [6][9]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The short - term driving force is insufficient, and the prices are mainly fluctuating. Hold long - call options [7][9]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore production has declined. Under the "anti - involution" trading, the short - term is not suitable to short the black market. The steel mill profit is high, and the daily average iron ore is expected to remain at a high level in July. The increase in arrivals will ease the pressure on near - month contracts [8].