CMS·2025-07-10 06:34Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the capital market is stabilizing at the bottom, with multiple funding sources supporting bullish sentiment, suggesting a potential upward breakthrough in equities. The brokerage sector is expected to lead the market rally, recommending early positioning and waiting for breakout opportunities [1]. Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 6,179.1 billion, with a circulating market value of 5,901.2 billion, representing 1.8% and 7.2% of the total market, respectively [2]. - The performance of the non-bank financial sector shows a 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month absolute performance of 9.0%, 16.0%, and 59.5%, respectively, with relative performance of 5.8%, 10.5%, and 42.0% [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the equity market has stabilized despite initial shocks from U.S. tariffs, with significant institutional investments leading to a recovery. The overall trend remains positive, with major indices showing an average increase of 1.1% as of June 30, 2025 [8]. - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the China Bond Index rising by 1.1% year-to-date as of June 30, 2025 [8]. Business Performance - In Q1 2025, listed brokerages reported total revenues of 1,259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of 522 billion, up 78% year-on-year. The brokerage income was 327 billion, reflecting a 43% increase year-on-year [25]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the revenue of self-operated businesses, which reached 486 billion, marking a 46% year-on-year growth [30]. Strategic Directions - The report outlines a shift towards internal consolidation and external breakthroughs, with a focus on wealth management transformation and the integration of financial technology to enhance efficiency [6]. - The investment banking sector is expected to see a marginal recovery in equity financing, particularly benefiting from the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ongoing mergers and acquisitions [6]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the industry will achieve total revenue of 4,741 billion in 2025, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1,825 billion, up 9% year-on-year [6]. - The brokerage sector is anticipated to lead the market rally, with specific recommendations for stocks that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts and ongoing market trends [6].