6月通胀数据解读：金价&油价，如何影响通胀？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the year-on-year CPI rose to 0.1%, and the year-on-year PPI fell to -3.6%. Gold and oil prices affected inflation, with gold contributing to the rise of core CPI but not being the main factor, and the increase in oil prices failing to reverse the decline of PPI due to domestic production seasonality and weakening export effects [1][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Two Core Concerns about Prices Amid Gold and Oil Price Fluctuations (1) Is the Rise of Core CPI Driven by Gold Prices or the Recovery of Demand? - Core CPI can be split into services, core consumer goods (excluding gold), and gold. In the first half of 2025, core CPI rose 0.5% cumulatively month-on-month, with gold contributing 0.13%, services 0.17%, and other core consumer goods 0.2%. Gold helped boost core CPI but was not the main factor. After excluding gold, core consumer goods' month-on-month performance in Q2 was weaker than in Q1, suggesting potential new consumption stimulus policies [2][10]. (2) Why Did the Year-on-Year PPI Decline in June Despite a Sharp Increase in Oil Prices? - In June, the PPI month-on-month decline remained at -0.4%. Although the 9% increase in oil prices boosted PPI by about 0.3 percentage points, the domestic production off-season and the weakening of the "rush to export" effect offset this impact. Industries such as ferrous metal smelting and processing, non-metallic mineral products, and coal-related industries affected the PPI month-on-month decline by about 0.33 percentage points. Some export-oriented industries also saw price drops [2][15]. 2. June CPI: Food Performed Better than Seasonal Averages, and Oil and Gold Prices Supported the Month-on-Month Recovery, with the Year-on-Year Rate Rising to 0.1% (1) Food Items: Rainfall Supported Fresh Vegetables, while Pork, Eggs, and Fresh Fruits Were Drags - The month-on-month CPI food item fell to around -0.4%, better than the seasonal average, affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.09 percentage points. Pork prices dropped 1.2% due to oversupply. Fresh food prices were mixed, with freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rising, while eggs and fresh fruits fell, overall affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.07 percentage points [19]. (2) Non-Food Items: Oil, Gold, and Rent Were Supports, while Cars and Tourism Were Drags - The month-on-month CPI non-food item recovered to around 0. Energy prices rose as domestic oil prices followed overseas trends, with gasoline prices rising 0.4%. Core consumer goods were dragged down by clothing and cars, while gold was a support. Services showed little change overall, with tourism weaker than seasonal and rent rising during the graduation season [21][27][28]. 3. June PPI: The Domestic Production Off-season and Some Export Industries Led to a Year-on-Year Decline to -3.6% (1) Overall: The Month-on-Month Decline of PPI Remained around -0.4% - The month-on-month decline of PPI remained around -0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, and consumer goods also weakened. Production materials prices fell 0.6%, and consumer goods prices turned negative [35]. (2) By Industry: The Crude Oil Industry Chain Was the Main Support, while Raw Material Manufacturing and Some Export Industries Were Drags - In June, about two-thirds of industrial producer industries saw price declines. The crude oil industry chain was the main support, with prices in related industries rising or their decline narrowing. Drags included raw material manufacturing industries such as building materials, energy industries like coal and electricity, and export-related industries such as electronics, electrical machinery, and textiles [35][39][44].