海外札记：大美丽法案”市场冲击或有限

Group 1: Short-term Impact of the "Great Beauty Act" - The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to have limited short-term market impact due to prior market adjustments over the past two months, with bond yields already reflecting the anticipated changes[6] - The act was passed with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and signed into law on July 4, 2025[9] - Concerns about a large-scale fiscal expansion causing market turmoil are mitigated by the expectation that upcoming debt issuance will primarily rely on short-term bonds, stabilizing long-term bond supply[6] Group 2: Long-term Implications of the "Great Beauty Act" - The act is projected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, with tax cuts estimated at $4.5 trillion and spending cuts at $1.4 trillion[12] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the act will raise the deficit rate to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five years, reflecting a structural shift in fiscal policy[30] - The act's long-term significance lies in its potential to reshape market perceptions of the U.S. fiscal cycle, establishing a "new normal" for deficit levels rather than reverting to historical averages[30] Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - Neutral institutions forecast that the act will contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next decade, indicating a modest impact on overall economic performance[23] - The act's primary policies are extensions of existing measures, suggesting minimal marginal changes to the economic landscape[27] - Historical data shows that previous tax reforms had limited effects on corporate investment, indicating skepticism about the act's ability to drive significant economic growth[29]