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黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略-20250710
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-07-10 07:58

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coking coal and coke markets, including market logic, trading strategies, and fundamental factors. It also offers important industry news and policy updates [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot-Futures Market Conditions - Trading Strategies: For coking coal, short - term small - scale long positions can be taken after it breaks through the key pressure level, and risk - averse investors can wait for a pull - back to replenish long positions. For coke, long positions can be continued on a single - side basis with proper position control, and a spot - futures positive spread strategy should be maintained [4][5][12]. - Domestic Prices: In the futures market, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1456.00, up 31.50, and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 871.50, up 28.00. In the domestic spot market, prices of various grades of coke and coking coal remained stable compared to the previous day [13][14]. - Import Prices: The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal was 748.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of imported coking coal from other regions such as Australia and Russia showed different degrees of change [17]. - Base - spread Situation: The base - spread data for coke and coking coal from different sources are provided, with the futures prices and corresponding converted warehouse - receipt prices presented [20]. Part 2: Fundamentals - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%, and the daily output was 53.66 tons, with a change of 1.21 tons [23]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking coal at six ports was 304.27 tons, with a change of 18.68 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants was 848.18 tons, with a change of 39.20 tons, and that of steel mills was 789.60 tons, with a change of 8.39 tons. The inventory of coke at four ports was 191.12 tons, with a change of - 8.97 tons, and the coke inventory of coking plants and steel mills also showed different degrees of change [25]. Part 3: Spreads No specific numerical or descriptive content about spreads is provided, only a list of related spread charts is given [31]. Other Important Information - Industry News: The US Treasury Secretary believes that the market may be pricing in Trump's view on interest - rate cuts, and Trump plans to impose new tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, etc. The Japanese Prime Minister responded to the US tariff issue. China's National Development and Reform Commission official mentioned the development of infrastructure in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [3].