Workflow
中小市值2025年中期投资策略报告:全球谨慎宽松,关注AI+以及业绩增长确定公司的投资机会-20250710
CMS·2025-07-10 08:02

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Global central banks are in a cautious easing phase, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having cut rates eight times since June 2024, bringing rates down by 25 basis points as of June 2025, indicating the end of the easing cycle is near [7][11] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive time as of June 19, 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to potential rate cuts based on economic data [13][14] - The People's Bank of China continues to implement a "counter-cyclical, unconventional, and moderate easing" strategy, having lowered the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.10% to 3.00% in May 2025, indicating a supportive stance for market liquidity [16][18] Group 2: AI Applications and Market Opportunities - AI applications in the B-end market are gradually expanding, with companies like Duolingo reporting a 49% year-on-year increase in daily active users (DAU) due to AI-driven personalized learning [21][22] - Applovin has significantly improved advertising matching efficiency through its AI-driven platform, achieving a revenue increase of 40.25% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [27][29] - Salesforce's AI tool, Agentforce, processed over 380,000 conversations with an 84% resolution rate, showcasing strong client acceptance and the potential for AI applications in business operations [30][31] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The valuation of small-cap stocks is showing signs of recovery, with the PE-TTM for the Guozheng 2000 and ChiNext indices at 29.41x and 31.08x respectively as of June 19, 2025, indicating they are at historical high percentiles [68][69] - Recommended stocks include Blue Sky Technology, which has shown stable growth in its core business, and Spring Wind Power, which has reported strong earnings growth and is advancing its globalization strategy [73][78] - Companies benefiting from AI applications, such as Wuzhou Xinchun and Jieshun Technology, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7][73]