套期保值计划系列（三）：乙公司集运指数（欧线）套期保值方案

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) futures have the economic logic basis to be used as a hedging tool for Company B, and can hedge the spot price. The futures price can effectively reflect the fluctuation trend of the spot freight rate, and the spot and futures prices are positively correlated [1][27]. - The supply of the European Line is relatively loose. The peak freight rate in the peak season from July to August is expected to move forward slightly compared with the previous expectation. After that, the downward slope of the freight rate will mainly depend on the scale of blank sailings in August. From September to October, the market will gradually enter the off - season, and the freight rate may decline faster. Considering the Spring Festival in 2026, the peak of the year - end peak season will probably appear in mid - January. Overall, it will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and attention should be paid to the potential disturbances of geopolitical risks [2]. - To prevent price risk events after locking the forward freight rate with customers, it is recommended that Company B buy container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts when the price drops, and close the futures positions after purchasing the shipping space, so as to make up for the losses caused by the cost increase with the profits in the futures account. It is recommended to buy futures for hedging at low prices for the sold orders [3]. - The hedging business of enterprises requires the close cooperation of multiple departments, and there should be a scientific decision - making process and strict risk control measures [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Feasibility Analysis of Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging - Risk Exposures in Different Links of the Shipping Industry Chain: Upstream shipping companies face the risk of falling forward freight rates and can use selling hedging; mid - stream freight forwarders have two - way risk exposures and can use both buying and selling hedging according to the order cycle; downstream foreign trade enterprises face the risk of rising freight rates and can use buying hedging [14]. - Analysis of Company B's Risk Exposures: Company B's risk exposure comes from the time difference between "locking orders and booking cabins", with a large scale of 2500 FEU, concentrated time windows around June and September, complex driving factors dominated by geopolitics, and far - reaching multi - dimensional business conduction effects [17][23]. - Feasibility Analysis of Company B's Futures Hedging: The correlation between the WCI Shanghai - Rotterdam container freight rate and the settlement price of the active contract month of the container shipping index (European Line) futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 0.7487, indicating that the futures contract can be used as a hedging tool for Company B, but basis risk should be noted [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis of Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - Exceeding Expectations in Demand in the First Half of the Year and Return to Seasonal Normalcy: From January to April, China's container shipping volume exported to Europe increased by 9% cumulatively. The substitution effect of Asian production capacity for European local production capacity is the core driving force for the strong growth of China - Europe trade. In the short term, China - Europe trade still has support, but the growth rate of cargo volume may converge in the second and third quarters [28]. - Moderate Increase in the Pressure of Excess Supply on the European Line: In the second half of the year, the pressure of new ship deliveries remains high. The upper and lower limits of the European Line's weekly capacity have increased, and the market has shifted from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition. The tariff issue between China and the United States may have an impact on the European Line, and port congestion has a limited impact on the supply side [37][42][56]. - Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025: It is expected that the peak freight rate in the peak season from July to August will move forward slightly, and the downward slope of the freight rate after that will depend on the scale of blank sailings in August. From September to October, the freight rate may decline faster. The peak of the year - end peak season will probably appear in mid - January. The European Line will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and geopolitical risks should be noted [70]. 3.3. Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging Plan - Calculation of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: The optimal hedge ratio is 0.83, and the hedging efficiency can reach 74.2%. The container shipping index (European Line) futures hedging can transfer 61.7% of the risk, and the residual risk mainly comes from the delay in the convergence of spot and futures prices, basis mutations caused by policy shocks, and liquidity premium fluctuations [76][88][101]. - Impact of Value - Added Tax on Container Freight Rates: In the hedging operation, the impact of value - added tax is crucial. Company B's value - added tax treatment needs to be comprehensively judged according to the nature of the service, the way of contract signing, and whether it meets the tax - exemption policy. The subsequent plan does not consider the impact of value - added tax [103]. - Impact of Container Freight Rate Basis: The container freight rate basis fluctuates significantly, and its core driving factors include supply - demand imbalance, macro and policy shocks, and seasonal demand fluctuations. Basis risk affects the hedging effect, and Company B can optimize the hedging strategy from three aspects [109][110][112]. - Futures Hedging Strategy: It is recommended that Company B buy container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts at low prices for the sold orders. For the 400 - 500 FEU in July, it can choose EC08 and EC10 contracts, and the theoretical minimum hedging funds required are about 401.32 million yuan, with a total recommended deposit of about 892.32 million yuan [114][115]. - Ending Method of Hedging: The container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts use cash settlement. The hedging position can be closed through reverse operations in the futures market [116]. 3.4. Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging Risk Control System - Decision - Making Process of Hedging: In the market analysis stage, it is necessary to evaluate macro variables, focus on the supply - demand structure of the industry, and combine technical analysis and quantitative tools to verify macro and fundamental conclusions [117]. - Risk Control Measures for Hedging: No specific content provided in the given text.