银河期货每日早盘观察-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Domestic soybeans face inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the domestic market is influenced by the weak international market. In the oil sector, palm oil is in a production - inventory increase phase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand characteristics. Corn has a complex domestic supply - demand situation, and its futures are expected to bottom - oscillate. The hog market is expected to be volatile under a loose supply - demand situation. Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure. The egg market has different trends for different contracts. Apples are expected to be volatile in the short term. Cotton is expected to have limited upward space [5][9][16][25][30][35][42][47][52] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - External Market: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1013.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT meal index fell 0.21% to 280.4 dollars/short ton [2] - Information: USDA export sales and monthly supply - demand report have certain forecasts. Brazilian farmers sold less soybeans in 2025, and domestic oil mill data shows supply - demand status [2][3] - Logic: International and domestic soybean markets have a loose supply - demand balance [5] - Strategy: Low - point long positions, MRM09 spread expansion, and option watching [6] Sugar - External Market: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract up 0.41 (2.54%) to 16.54 cents/pound [7] - Information: Forecasts for Brazilian sugar production are down year - on - year. Import costs and profits are provided, and domestic sugar prices are adjusted [8] - Logic: International sugar is weak, and domestic sugar follows the international trend [9] - Strategy: Zheng sugar oscillates, spread watching, and using out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11] Oils - External Market: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [13] - Information: Forecasts for global soybean and EU rapeseed production. Domestic oil trading volume increased [14][15] - Logic: Palm oil is in production - inventory increase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand situations [16] - Strategy: Short - term oscillation, spread and option watching [17][18][19] Corn/Corn Starch - External Market: CBOT corn futures stabilized [21] - Information: Corn inventory and trading volume data in domestic ports, and processing data [23] - Logic: US corn has limited downside, and domestic corn has a complex supply - demand situation [25] - Strategy: Long on 09 corn, spread operation, and using call - writing strategy for those with spot [26][27] Hogs - Information: Hog, piglet, and sow prices are provided, and relevant agricultural product price indices are given [30] - Logic: Hog prices are supported but expected to be volatile [30] - Strategy: Short - side thinking, LH91 positive spread, and option watching [31] Peanuts - Information: Peanut and peanut product prices, and inventory data are provided [33][34] - Logic: Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure [35] - Strategy: Short on 10 peanuts at high points, spread watching, and selling pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][38] Eggs - Information: Egg prices, production, and sales data are provided [40] - Logic: Different egg contracts have different trends [42] - Strategy: Long on the 9 - month contract, spread watching, and selling put options [43] Apples - Information: Apple inventory, import - export, and price data are provided [45] - Logic: Apples are expected to be short - term oscillatory [47] - Strategy: Low - buying and high - selling on AP10, spread watching, and selling put options [48] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - External Market: ICE US cotton rose [49] - Information: China's cotton inventory data and spot trading information are provided [50] - Logic: US cotton may be short - term weak but has potential positives, and Zheng cotton has limited upward space [51][52] - Strategy: Oscillation for US cotton, short - term slightly strong but limited upward space for Zheng cotton, spread watching, and selling put options [53]