电气设备行业点评：光伏反内卷如何演绎？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The necessity for supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is highlighted due to ongoing profitability pressures, with over 150 companies expected to face bankruptcy or liquidation by mid-2025 [2] - The industry has experienced significant price declines since Q4 2023, leading to widespread losses among major companies, with a notable shift towards a cash-negative state by Q1 2025 [2][11] - The demand for photovoltaic products is expected to rebound in the medium to long term as energy storage economics improve, particularly after the implementation of the "136 Document" [3][20] Summary by Sections Event Description - Major polysilicon manufacturers raised prices to 37 CNY/kg as of July 7, 2025, with full costs estimated above 39-40 CNY/kg [1][11] Event Commentary - The photovoltaic sector has seen leading companies enter a phase of substantial losses since Q4 2023, necessitating coordinated supply-side reforms among key industry players [2] - Historical supply-side reforms in related industries have led to significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating potential for recovery in the photovoltaic sector [2][14] Industry Performance - In May 2025, photovoltaic grid connections reached 9.3 GW, a 388% year-on-year increase, but demand is expected to face short-term pressure due to earlier overcapacity [3][20] - The future of photovoltaic demand is contingent on achieving price parity in energy storage solutions, which is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities [3][20]