瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly. Domestic inventory will increase slightly, while overseas inventory will decline again. Although lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, overall demand is gradually decreasing. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,044 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 89,789 lots, up 1,267 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 347 lots, down 310 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 50,608 tons, up 2,895 tons. The SHFE inventory is 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME lead inventory is 258,075 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 23.04 US dollars/ton, down 83.34 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 79.05%, up 2.26 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.63 tons, up 0.05 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 50 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars. The global lead mine production by ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons. The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The average market price of waste batteries is 10,191.07 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan tertiary industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,726.54 points, down 17.34 points. The monthly automobile production is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons. The monthly new - energy vehicle production is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump sent tariff letters to 8 countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff. The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts. The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1st. The White House trade advisor said that Apple thought it was too big to be tariffed. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rates and output increased due to rising lead prices. Recycled lead also saw a slight increase in supply and profit, but the raw - material bottleneck was difficult to reverse in the short term, so the supply increase was limited. On the demand side, market transactions were weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rates of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. Overseas inventory declined again, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between home and abroad, creating an arbitrage opportunity. The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which would have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].