2025年6月通胀数据点评：核心CPI持续回升，“反内卷”提振再通胀预期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].