中辉期货日刊-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Consolidation [1][3][4] - LPG: Bearish consolidation [1][6][7] - L: Bearish rebound [1][9][10] - PP: Bearish rebound [1][11][12] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1][14][15] - PX: Sideways [1][16][17] - PTA/PR: Rebound with a bearish bias [1][19][20] - Ethylene Glycol: Rebound with a bearish bias [1][21][22] - Glass: Rebound and go long [2][24][25] - Soda Ash: Range-bound rebound [2][26][27] - Caustic Soda: Continue to rebound [2][29][30] - Methanol: Rebound with a bearish bias [2][32][33] - Urea: Rebound and short [2] - Asphalt: Rebound with a bearish bias [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: There is support at the bottom during the consumption peak season, but the pressure to increase production is rising. The medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in excess [3][4][5] - LPG: The cost side is bearish, the supply side is sufficient, and the price is oscillating weakly [6][7][8] - L: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [9][10] - PP: The cost support has improved, and it rebounds within a range [11][12] - PVC: The market trades on anti - involution, and the price rebounds from a low level [14][15] - PX: The supply - demand balance shifts from tight to loose, but there is still cost support, and it is in an oscillating adjustment [16][17][18] - PTA/PR: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to be loose. Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies [19][20] - Ethylene Glycol: Low inventory at ports vs. expected supply - demand looseness. Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies [21][22][23] - Glass: Policy expectations vs. real - world constraints. Consider going long on pullbacks [24][25] - Soda Ash: Soda ash factories continue to accumulate inventory, and the rebound is mainly bearish [26][27][28] - Caustic Soda: The subsidy for liquid chlorine is expanding, and the price continues to rebound [29][30][31] - Methanol: The basis weakens, and there is negative feedback on MTO demand. It rebounds with a bearish bias [32][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] - Asphalt: The cost side rebounds in the short - term, but there is large downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting lightly [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices continued to oscillate. WTI decreased by 1.99%, Brent increased by 0.06%, and SC increased by 1.14% [3] - Basic Logic: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. However, the oil price has strong support at the bottom due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP. The global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 129,000 barrels per day, lower than that in May. The U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels [4] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it rebounds with a bearish bias. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [5] 3.2 LPG - Market Review: On July 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,178 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.14% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [6] - Basic Logic: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, and the subsequent downward pressure on the oil price is expected to increase. The PDH and alkylation device profits decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand of downstream industries such as PDH decreased. The inventory of refineries and ports decreased [7] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the center of the upstream crude oil price is expected to move down, and the LPG valuation is high. In the short - term, it oscillates weakly. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [8] 3.3 L - Basic Logic: Although the crude oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand for domestic polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply change is small. The short - term price is expected to be weak. Recently, the device maintenance intensity has increased, and the supply pressure has been marginally relieved. New devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a weak long - term outlook [10] - Strategy Recommendation: It rebounds in the short - term. Sell - hedge at an appropriate time. L focuses on [7250 - 7400] [10] 3.4 PP - Market Review: The PP main contract and other contracts closed higher, and the main contract's open interest decreased. The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the profit of some production processes decreased [12] - Basic Logic: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The international crude oil price has risen, providing cost support. Some devices are expected to expand production in the middle of the month, and the supply pressure still exists [12] - Strategy Recommendation: It rebounds in the short - term. Consider a 9 - 1 positive spread at an appropriate time. PP focuses on [7000 - 7200] [12] 3.5 PVC - Market Review: The PVC main contract and other contracts closed higher, and the main contract's open interest increased. The spot prices in some regions increased slightly [15] - Basic Logic: The production enterprises' start - up changes are limited, and the inventory accumulation pressure increases in the off - season. The cost support decreases. The market trades on anti - involution, and the price rebounds from a low level. The Lanthanum coke price has decreased, and the basis has weakened. The upstream is in the centralized maintenance period, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of some factories and the Indian anti - dumping tax policy [15] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term long and long - term short. Pay attention to the previous high pressure level. V focuses on [4900 - 5050] [15] 3.6 PX - Market Review: The PX futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the spot price in East China remained unchanged. The PX inventory decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [16] - Basic Logic: The domestic and overseas PX device loads are running at a relatively high level, and the demand from the PTA side has decreased. The supply - demand has changed from a tight balance to a loose one. The PX inventory is still relatively high [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see. PX focuses on [6680 - 6780] [18] 3.7 PTA/PR - Market Review: The PTA futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the spot price in East China decreased. The PTA inventory decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate remained unchanged [19] - Basic Logic: The recent device changes are relatively small, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the new PTA devices are put into production. The downstream polyester production reduction load has been declining, and the terminal weaving start - up load has continued to decline. The inventory has been continuously destocked, and the processing fee is high, and the basis has weakened [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4690 - 4760] [20] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: The ethylene glycol futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the spot price in East China remained unchanged. The ethylene glycol inventory increased slightly [21] - Basic Logic: Many domestic and overseas ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance or shut down temporarily, and the recent arrival and import volumes are low, but the expected arrival volume is expected to rebound. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction and load reduction continue. The low inventory supports the price [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4260 - 4320] [23] 3.9 Glass - Market Review: The spot market quotes are stable, the futures price has risen slightly, the basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly [24] - Basic Logic: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological transformation process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The production profit of float glass varies with different raw materials. The fuel price has increased, which boosts the sentiment [25] - Strategy Recommendation: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [25] 3.10 Soda Ash - Market Review: The heavy soda ash spot quotes are differentiated, the futures price has risen slightly, the main contract basis has decreased, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of effective forecasts has decreased [27] - Basic Logic: The high - level meeting mentions supply - side capacity reduction, which boosts the industry sentiment, but the influence of policy speculation has weakened. The soda ash supply is slightly reduced at a high level due to some enterprises' device maintenance. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased, and the downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [28] - Strategy Recommendation: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [28] 3.11 Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot quotes of caustic soda have been partially raised, the futures price center has moved up, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly [30] - Basic Logic: The supply side has high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity investment. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has decreased. The inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has decreased [31] - Strategy Recommendation: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [31] 3.12 Methanol - Market Review: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China decreased, and the main contract futures price decreased. The basis in East China increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [32] - Basic Logic: The upstream profit is still good, and the domestic methanol device comprehensive start - up load remains high. Most Iranian devices have started. The arrival volume in early July may be lower than expected, but the port is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle later. The demand negative feedback is obvious, and the traditional demand start - up load is expected to return to the off - season. The social inventory has been accumulating, but the overall inventory is low [33] - Strategy Recommendation: MA focuses on [2370 - 2410] [33] 3.13 Urea - Basic Logic: The recent urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, the daily production is expected to return to 200,000 tons in early July, and the supply pressure is still large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand is weaker than the same period last year, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Rebound and short. Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1755 - 1785] [2] 3.14 Asphalt - Basic Logic: The cost side of asphalt has rebounded in the short - term, and the inventory has decreased. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the cost side has large downward pressure due to OPEC+ continuing to expand production. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by the weather [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [2]