有色日报：有色普涨，铜偏弱-20250710

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, but the announcement of a 50% import tariff on copper by Trump put pressure on copper prices. The market may worry about the closure of the US import window and a potential decline in non - US copper demand. Technically, there is strong support at the June price center [5]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices increased with open interest last night and the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 20,700 yuan today. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the rise in the black and production - cut sectors was beneficial to aluminum prices. On July 10th, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 455,000 tons. With improved domestic macro - expectations, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high, and the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - Nickel: Nickel prices increased with open interest in the afternoon and the main contract price stood above 121,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved. Upstream mines were stable, downstream expectations improved, stainless steel strengthened, and downstream demand might improve, supporting nickel prices. Technically, the price stood above 120,000 yuan again and is expected to remain strong driven by the macro - environment [7]. Industry Dynamics - Copper: Trump announced on July 9th that a 50% tariff on all imported copper to the US would be imposed starting from August 1st. In Q2 2025, the I, II, and III phase concentrators of Kamoa - Kakula processed 3.62 million tons of ore, producing 112,000 tons of copper, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In the first half of 2025, it produced 245,000 tons of copper [9]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai Futures Exchange listed the first recycled metal variety, cast aluminum alloy futures and options, on June 10th. As of July 9th, after 22 trading days, the cast aluminum alloy futures had a cumulative trading volume of 205,700 lots, with a post - market open interest of 10,200 lots, equivalent to 102,000 tons of spot, accounting for about 27% of the domestic monthly consumption of cast aluminum alloy. The cast aluminum alloy options had a cumulative trading volume of 41,500 lots and a post - market open interest of 6,000 lots [9]. - Nickel: On July 10th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2050 yuan/ton at a price of 121,740 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton at 120,240 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton at 122,440 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton at 118,790 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - Aluminum: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - Nickel: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]