乐观情绪发酵，钢矿强势上行

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.89%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. It shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. However, the low inventory, recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, and policy conditions should be closely monitored [4][40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.16%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price to maintain a relatively strong trend, but overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [6][41]. - Iron ore: The main contract price rose significantly with a daily increase of 3.67%, trading volume increased while open interest was stable. Ore demand has some resilience, and optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the short - term upward trend. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially in the context of weak supply and demand, and caution is needed regarding the upward height, as well as the possible shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [6][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Real Estate: In the first half of 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in first - and second - tier cities increased by over 40%. The land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 5.5%. The concentration of land transfer fees in the top 20 cities increased to 68%, and the land transfer fees for residential - related land in Hangzhou and Beijing exceeded 10 billion yuan [8]. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [9]. - Mineral Exploration: In the first half of 2025, 38 new mineral deposits were discovered in China, a year - on - year increase of 31%, including 25 large and medium - sized ones. Non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. Social capital investment in exploration reached 3.359 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 48% of the total [10]. 2. Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, are provided, along with their price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - Contract Information: The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented [15]. 4. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][18][20]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [22][23][29]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and the operating rate and profitability of electric furnaces of steel mills [32][34][35]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weak, with production and demand decreasing. The low inventory, policy benefits, and strong raw materials support the short - term upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand have weakened, with production and demand decreasing. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price, but overseas tariff risks should be watched out for [41]. - Iron Ore: Supply and demand have weakened, with inventory increasing and consumption decreasing. The short - term upward trend is supported by demand resilience and optimistic sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially [41].