国际尿素价格提振国内市场情绪

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - Spot: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - Supply Data: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - Downstream Data: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]