中辉期货农产品观点-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Overall: The report provides short - term outlooks for various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, analyzing their market trends based on factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [1]. - Soybean Meal: Short - term consolidation. Consider factors like US biodiesel policy and inventory levels [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term adjustment. Pay attention to US biodiesel hearings and Sino - Canadian relations [1][7]. - Palm Oil: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. - Cotton: Rebound is under pressure. Watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. - Jujube: Wide - range oscillation. Be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. - Live Pigs: Weak oscillation. Focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Data: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.41% to 2947 yuan/ton; national average spot price increased 0.10% to 2897.14 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, South American harvest is certain. Domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' restocking enthusiasm may slow down [1]. - Outlook: Short - term consolidation, watch for the outcome of biodiesel policy [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 2586 yuan/ton; national average spot price remained unchanged at 2565.79 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Inventory is decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and reduced imports support prices, but low spot price difference with soybean meal affects consumption [1][7]. - Outlook: Short - term adjustment, pay attention to US biodiesel hearings [1][7]. Palm Oil - Market Data: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 8678 yuan/ton; national average price increased 0.94% to 8830 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Southeast Asian inventory - building cycle has started, but there are positive factors such as Chinese and Indian low - price purchases and US biodiesel policies. US tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1][10]. - Outlook: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. Cotton - Market Data: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 rose 0.33% to 13830 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.09% to 15189 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Internationally, US cotton planting is mostly completed, with high planting area and good quality. India's planting area is increasing, and Brazil's output is expected to rise. Domestically, new cotton growth is good, inventory is decreasing, and imports are shrinking. However, downstream orders are weakening [12][13][14]. - Outlook: Rebound is under pressure, watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. Jujube - Market Data: Main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.10% to 10425 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: New - season jujube trees are growing well, current inventory is high, and demand is weak [16]. - Outlook: Wide - range oscillation, be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. Live Pigs - Market Data: Main contract Lh2509 decreased 0.04% to 14265 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.40% to 15000 yuan/ton [17][18]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is still in an increasing cycle, demand is marginally weakening [18]. - Outlook: Weak oscillation, focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19].