冠通每日交易策略-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of coking coal is still strong, driven by supply - side disturbances [3]. - The futures market of lithium carbonate is currently in high - level consolidation but deviates from fundamentals, and there is a risk of an unexpected decline [5]. - If the copper tariff is implemented on August 1, the copper market will be bearish, but caution is needed when short - selling due to potential trade conflicts [10]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate as the Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, but the post - ceasefire situation needs attention [11]. - It is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as downstream demand and trade issues [15]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future, affected by trade and demand factors [16]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with large pressure before demand improves substantially [18]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range as it has high inventory and short - term demand pressure [19]. - Soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate weakly as supply is abundant and demand is limited [21]. - The short - term trend of rebar is affected by supply contraction expectations and capital, but the uncertainty of the off - season fundamentals remains [23]. - Hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate strongly due to improved supply - demand structure, cost support, and policy factors [26]. - Urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by export orders and international prices [27]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Today, coking coal opened and closed higher. The prices in the Shanxi market and Mongolia increased. From July 10 - 17, the Sino - Mongolian border is closed, and domestic mines are resuming production. The supply pressure is relieved, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is bullish in the short term [3]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed down. The spot price is rising, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The futures market is affected by non - fundamental factors. If the demand recovers in July, the price may be boosted [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened low and then rose. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1. The supply may increase, and the demand is expected to decline in the off - season. The market is bearish in the future [10]. Crude Oil - The Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, reducing concerns about supply disruptions. However, the post - ceasefire situation needs attention. OPEC + will increase production in August, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, but the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is entering the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream开工率 is low, and the supply pressure is relieved by new capacity and maintenance. It is expected to oscillate at a low level due to trade and demand issues [14][15]. Plastic - The开工率 is at a low - to - neutral level, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply pressure is relieved by new capacity and reduced开工率. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [16]. PVC - The supply is decreasing, but the demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. The new capacity is about to be put into production. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. Soybean Oil - The price is oscillating upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure due to factors such as bio - diesel and palm oil substitution. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. Soybean Meal - The price closed higher. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly [21]. Rebar - It showed a "bottom - hunting and rising" trend. The supply is expected to contract, and the demand shows off - season resilience. The price is rising due to multiple factors, but the uncertainty remains [22][23]. Hot - rolled Coils - It showed a "breaking through the previous high and rising" pattern. The supply is contracting in some areas, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [24][26]. Urea - The price opened high and closed with an increase. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The inventory is decreasing, and the export is supported. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [27].