铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's second - round tariffs added eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil, causing the Brazilian real to fall nearly 3%. The EU is negotiating with the US to cut tariffs and set quotas. The Fed's June minutes eased market concerns, and the "US Treasury issuance wave" risk eased, leading to a decline in the 10Y US Treasury yield and a weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - Domestically, in June, CPI turned positive year - on - year to 0.1%, and core CPI rebounded. PPI's decline widened to - 3.6%. The State Council issued a document to strengthen "stable employment". The economy is in a stage of mild and narrow - range fluctuations and policy expectation fermentation. A - shares opened higher and closed lower, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was significant [2]. - For precious metals, the second wave of tariff letters affected the market. Gold prices were supported by trade tensions but restricted by the high - level US dollar index. The precious metals market is currently lack of strong driving forces and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][4]. - In the copper market, Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper boosted US copper prices but pressured Shanghai copper. The Fed's decision on interest rate cuts is still uncertain, and the short - term volatility of US copper is expected to increase [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upside space due to the increase in supply and the start of the consumption off - season. Alumina shows a short - term strength, but its long - term upside is restricted by the expected oversupply [7][8][9]. - Zinc prices are supported by the weakening US dollar, but the fundamentals are weak with stable supply and weak demand. Lead prices lack strong upward momentum due to limited demand improvement. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate sideways in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10][11][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of supply contraction and new policies. Steel prices are expected to rebound with a warm market sentiment, while iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [14][16][18]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, waiting for the MPOB report [19][20][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's new tariff policy added eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil. The EU is negotiating with the US. The Fed's June minutes eased market concerns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield fell to 4.33%, the US dollar index weakened, and gold prices rose [1]. - Domestic: In June, CPI turned positive year - on - year to 0.1%, core CPI rebounded, and PPI's decline widened to - 3.6%. The State Council strengthened "stable employment" policies. A - shares opened higher and closed lower, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.17% to $3322.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce. The market is focused on trade negotiations, and the precious metals market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract fell sharply, while London copper remained volatile at a high level. Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper boosted US copper prices but may harm the US economy. The short - term volatility of US copper is expected to increase [5]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. London aluminum closed at $2602 per ton, up 0.97%. Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upside space due to supply increase and consumption off - season [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3130 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The spot market is currently favorable, but the long - term upside is restricted by the expected oversupply [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated narrowly during the day and strongly at night. Zinc prices are supported by the weakening US dollar, but the fundamentals are weak [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead's main contract recovered part of its gains during the day and closed higher at night. Lead prices lack strong upward momentum due to limited demand improvement [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin's main contract recovered after hitting the bottom during the day and fluctuated narrowly at night. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate sideways in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is weak, and the demand is improving slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. The market sentiment is warm, but the supply - demand contradiction is slowly accumulating. Steel prices are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. The market sentiment is boosted by policies, and the supply pressure is reduced. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. 3.12 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil) - For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans fell, and the short - term trend is expected to fluctuate. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, waiting for the MPOB report [19][20][21]. 3.13 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on July 9, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [22]. 3.14 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes and inventory data of various metals from July 8 to July 9, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and precious metals [23][24][25].