Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Information: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - Logic: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - Strategy: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - Market Information: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - Logic: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - Strategy: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market Information: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - Logic: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Information: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - Logic: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - Market Information: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - Logic: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - Strategy: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].
中辉有色观点-20250710
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-10 10:23