Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 10:22Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-07-10 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy [2]. - The steel mills are facing increased pressure of cost inversion and are in a state of full - line losses, leading to increased production cuts. With domestic anti - involution measures, the over - supply situation may be alleviated, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional off - season of consumption, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure, the downstream market is cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and the impact of subsequent production cuts on inventory reduction should be monitored [2]. - Technically, the long - position is slightly stronger in terms of positions. Pay attention to the support of MA10, and it is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,647 lots, an increase of 9 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,345 lots, a decrease of 2,421 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. The CPI turned positive after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices, and the PPI's month - on - month decline was the same as last month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization [2]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1st, the US will impose a 20% tariff on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The new tariff on Brazil is much higher than the previous 10% [2]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [2].