Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 10:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released continuously, and the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the expectation of favorable policies in the real estate market has increased, and the spot premium has been adjusted upwards. Overseas, the LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates stronger long - positions, and the price has stood above the MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 14.27%, down 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 14.27%, down 0.72 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.53%, down 1.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.01%, down 1.45 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the core CPI reached a 14 - month high, and the PPI decline widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that from August 1st, the US will impose tariffs on products from multiple countries. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [3]