Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 10:22Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost support for spot prices. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. Option market sentiment is bullish [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and cost support may provide some support for prices. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,208 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,602 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum increased by 5,534 hands to 255,633 hands, while those of alumina decreased by 4,110 hands to 244,546 hands. The positions of the cast aluminum alloy main contract increased by 242 hands to 8,813 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,450 tons to 390,800 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous 20 net positions increased by 10,629 hands to 27,332 hands. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.01 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 550 yuan to 160 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 25 yuan to 120 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount decreased by 10 yuan to - 60 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium and discount increased by 2.77 US dollars to - 0.60 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the month was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 50 yuan to 16,250 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong metal scrap increased by 50 yuan to 15,800 yuan/ton. China's import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons to 159,700.92 tons, and the export volume increased by 35.90 tons to 72.44 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina decreased by 5 million tons to 21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 5.68 million tons to 6.75 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons, and the production capacity utilization rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points. The production of aluminum products decreased by 0.20 million tons to 576.20 million tons, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 3 million tons to 55 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.76 million tons to 2.42 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons to 126 million tons, and the national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 11.70 million tons to 164.50 million tons, and the production of automobiles increased by 3.80 million vehicles to 264.20 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.22 percentage points to 8.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 8.76%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money IV increased by 0.0049 percentage points to 8.77%, and the put - call ratio was 1.11, down 0.0425 [2]. Industry News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed differences among officials on interest - rate prospects. Trump said Sino - US relations had improved [2]. - The State Council issued new employment - stabilization support policies. The NDRC said China's economy had an average annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% on average [2]. - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [2]. - The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted to "two - way empowerment", and the globalization of Chinese new - energy vehicles is an opportunity to build global brands [2].